Section 01
Overview of Climate in Afghanistan
For millions of Afghans, climate change is not a future threat — it is a present and daily reality. Afghanistan is experiencing some of the most severe and compounding climate stresses of any country on earth, at a moment when its governance capacity to respond has collapsed entirely.
More than 80 percent of Afghans depend directly on climate-sensitive livelihoods — agriculture, pastoralism, and natural resource extraction. Recurrent droughts, flash floods, glacial melt in the Hindukush range, accelerating desertification, and chronic food insecurity are devastating these livelihoods and driving displacement at scale.
The collapse of constitutional governance has compounded the crisis. Afghanistan has been effectively erased from global climate negotiations at precisely the moment when adaptation finance, loss and damage mechanisms, and resilience frameworks are being designed and funded. The populations that need climate support most are the least represented in the rooms where decisions are made.
Afghanistan is ranked among the top five most climate-vulnerable countries in the world. It has contributed the least to global emissions and stands to suffer the most from their consequences.
Glacial Melt & Water Insecurity
The Hindukush glaciers are melting at an accelerating rate. Reduced snowpack and earlier spring melts are already reshaping water availability, agricultural cycles, and seasonal flood patterns across the country and the region.
Drought & Desertification
Afghanistan is experiencing prolonged droughts of unprecedented severity. Desertification is advancing across the south and west. The collapse of agricultural systems is not only a humanitarian emergency — it is a core driver of displacement and state fragility.
Flash Floods & Extreme Weather
Erratic and intensifying rainfall patterns are producing more frequent and more destructive flash floods, destroying crops, infrastructure, and homes in provinces already devastated by years of conflict and economic collapse.
Food System Collapse
The intersection of drought, conflict, and governance failure has pushed Afghanistan's food systems to the edge of total collapse. Over half the population faces acute food insecurity — a crisis with climate change as one of its primary structural drivers.
Climate-Driven Displacement
Afghans are being displaced by violence, by drought, and by flood — often simultaneously. The intersection of conflict and climate is producing a compounding displacement crisis that no single humanitarian framework has been designed to address.
Governance Collapse & Adaptation Failure
Even where climate adaptation solutions exist, Afghanistan's governance collapse means there is no functional state capacity to plan, finance, or implement them. The absence of recognized government has also cut Afghanistan off from the international climate finance mechanisms that could help.
Section 02
Implications of Climate Security in Afghanistan for the World and Region
Afghanistan's climate crisis does not stop at its borders. The Hindukush mountain range is a shared ecological system whose glaciers, river basins, and weather patterns shape the lives of hundreds of millions of people across South and Central Asia. What happens in Afghanistan's highlands is felt far beyond them.
Shared Water Systems Under Stress
The Amu Darya, the Helmand, the Kabul River — these are not Afghan rivers alone. They are regional water systems that cross borders and sustain the agriculture, drinking water, and energy production of Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Iran, and India. Glacial melt and reduced snowpack in the Hindukush directly affect downstream water availability across the entire region. Climate instability in Afghanistan is regional water insecurity.
Displacement as a Regional and Global Issue
Climate-driven displacement from Afghanistan does not remain in Afghanistan. It moves to Pakistan, to Iran, to Turkey, and to Europe. Addressing the climate drivers of Afghan displacement is not charity — it is a direct interest of every country that has received or is receiving Afghan refugees and migrants. Ignoring Afghanistan's climate crisis is a choice to manage its consequences elsewhere.
The Conflict–Climate Nexus
Afghanistan is the world's sharpest example of the intersection between climate stress and violent conflict. Climate-driven resource scarcity — over water, land, and pasture — has historically fuelled local and regional conflict in Afghanistan. As climate stress intensifies, so does the risk of renewed and expanded conflict. Understanding this nexus is essential for any credible stabilization or peacebuilding agenda.
A Test Case for Climate Justice in Fragile States
Afghanistan is not alone in its exclusion from climate governance. Post-conflict states, fragile governments, and populations under unrecognized authorities across the world face the same structural barriers to climate finance and climate diplomacy. How the international community addresses Afghanistan's climate crisis will establish the precedent — and the framework — for dozens of similar situations in the years ahead.
Climate Finance Architecture at Stake
The loss and damage mechanisms, adaptation funds, and resilience frameworks being built right now at the international level were designed to reach the world's most vulnerable populations. In practice, they require state counterparts and recognized governments. Afghanistan represents the clearest proof that the current architecture is failing — and a forcing question for how it must be redesigned.
Regional Stability and Security
Environmental stress — water scarcity, crop failure, land degradation — has historically been a trigger for migration, local conflict, and political instability across the broader region. A climatically destabilized Afghanistan will export instability to its neighbors. The climate security of Afghanistan is a direct regional security interest for Central Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East.
Section 03
What KI Is Doing About This
KI approaches climate security as an Afghan-owned policy priority, not an externally imposed agenda. Our work combines rigorous research, credible advocacy, and sustained presence in the international forums where Afghanistan's climate future is being shaped — without it.
Research & Evidence Production
KI produces rigorous, evidence-based analysis on Afghanistan's climate vulnerabilities, the conflict-climate nexus, and the policy frameworks needed to reach populations in fragile and unrecognized state contexts. Our research is designed to inform international climate negotiations, donor decisions, and humanitarian programming — with Afghan voices and Afghan data at its core.
International Climate Advocacy
KI ensures that Afghan civil society has an independent, credible, and rights-based presence in global climate governance — including at COP — without dependence on Taliban-controlled structures and without political compromise. We bring Afghan voices into the rooms where climate finance, adaptation, and loss and damage decisions are made.
Advocating for Climate Finance Access
KI actively advocates for Afghan access to adaptation finance, loss and damage mechanisms, and resilience frameworks that are currently inaccessible due to the absence of a recognized government counterpart. We are working to change the structural rules that produce this exclusion — not just for Afghanistan, but for all populations in similar situations.
Building a Fragile States Climate Coalition
Afghanistan's exclusion from climate governance is shared by dozens of post-conflict and fragile states. KI is building a coalition of civil society actors, climate-frontline nations, and policy advocates to address this structural gap — using Afghanistan's case to establish precedents with global reach for inclusive climate governance that does not depend on formal state recognition.
Centering Afghan Civil Society
KI ensures that Afghan researchers, women leaders, humanitarian practitioners, and diaspora experts — the people with the deepest knowledge of Afghanistan's climate realities — are the ones carrying the Afghan climate agenda internationally. This is not representation by proxy. It is Afghan civil society speaking for itself.
Donor & Multilateral Engagement
KI works directly with donors, UN agencies, and multilateral institutions to open pathways to climate finance for Afghan civil society and to influence the design of climate governance frameworks so they are capable of reaching populations in fragile and unrecognized state contexts.
Section 04
Upcoming Initiatives
KI's climate security work is active and expanding. The following initiatives are currently in development or preparation. Details and timelines will be updated as they are confirmed.
Afghan Civil Society Engagement at COP31
KI will lead an Afghan civil society presence at COP31 in Türkiye — independent, credible, and rights-based. The program will center Afghan researchers, women leaders, and diaspora experts in formal and side-event programming, ensuring Afghan voices are heard in global climate negotiations without political compromise.
Hindukush Water Security Research Program
A dedicated research program examining glacial melt, water availability, and downstream implications for Afghanistan and the broader Hindukush-Himalayan region. The program will produce evidence-based analysis designed to inform regional water diplomacy and climate adaptation planning across South and Central Asia.
Fragile States Climate Finance Coalition
KI is convening a coalition of civil society organizations, researchers, and advocates from post-conflict and fragile states to address the structural barriers to climate finance access. The coalition will develop a joint advocacy agenda targeting UNFCCC bodies, the Green Climate Fund, and bilateral donors.
Conflict–Climate Nexus Policy Series
A policy brief series examining the intersection of conflict, fragility, and climate stress in Afghanistan — how they compound each other, how they drive displacement, and what integrated response frameworks would need to look like. Placeholder — details to be added.
Afghan Women Climate Leaders Program
A program to identify, support, and platform Afghan women climate researchers, advocates, and community leaders — ensuring they are the visible face of Afghan climate advocacy in international forums. Placeholder — details to be added.
Upcoming Initiative Placeholder
Placeholder for an additional upcoming initiative. Replace with actual initiative name, description, timeline, and details when confirmed.
Section 05
Policy Briefs
KI's climate security policy briefs provide rigorous, evidence-based analysis on Afghanistan's climate vulnerabilities, the conflict-climate nexus, and the structural barriers to climate finance for fragile and post-conflict states. Briefs will be added as they are published.
Short summary of the brief's argument and key findings. Replace with actual abstract when the brief is published.
Download PDF →Short summary of the brief's argument and key findings. Replace with actual abstract when the brief is published.
Download PDF →Short summary of the brief's argument and key findings. Replace with actual abstract when the brief is published.
Download PDF →